Trump hails desperate Russian diesel deal despite backlash – will it help him?

Donald Trump has announced that he has made a deal with Vladimir Putin that will allowing Russia to “immediately release” diesel into the US and global markets. Trump said on Truth Social the Russian President agreed to release 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and another million after that. The move has led to accusations the President is funding Putin’s war against Ukraine. Trump, though, insisted the “great announcement” on Russian energy would help lower diesel costs quickly. He wrote: “Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!” “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority,” the US leader added. The President’s controversial announcement comes after diesel prices in the US doubled since the war with Iran began in February, with the conflict causing major supply issues. The global shortage has put pressure on Republicans ahead of the midterm elections due to the rising cost of living in the country. What did Trump and Putin agree? The US Treasury Department has issued a temporary license to enable Russian diesel to flow to global markets through April 2027. This would allow Russia to deliver the more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel Trump said would be delivered immediately, as well as the further 500,000 tonnes to come in November. However, as is typical with the President’s social media announcements, limited detail was available on how the agreement will work in practice and no exact timelines were given for any of the fuel releases. Beyond the diesel set to arrive during or before November, Trump said only that Russia would make another one million tonnes available “immediately thereafter” and a further three million would be released “within a short period of time” after that. Trump also did not specify whether the US itself was paying Russia for the diesel or whether private companies had struck deals with the Kremlin to import fuel. A statement from Putin offered little additional explanation. Russia’s leader said that during his call with Trump, they dedicated “significant attention to the prospects of resolving the Ukrainian crisis” and discussed “the situation around Iran and various aspects of bilateral relations”. He maintained Russia “confirmed its readiness to supply oil and oil products to the American and global markets”, adding: “I am confident that this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy.” Yuri Ushakov, one of Putin’s aides, later declined to answer Russian media questions over whether the US had made any concessions or other commitments in exchange for the diesel release. How have others reacted? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was quick to criticise the agreement, describing it as “an investment in a war that must be ended”. “Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world,” he wrote on the X. He added: “Russia will ‘repay’ the diesel with further terror and perfidy. Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must be ended, not prolonged. What is needed is real de-escalation with Russia on a reciprocal basis.” In a later statement, released by the Ukrainian embassy in Washington, Zelenskyy added it was “a weak decision, unfortunately, a weak decision by strong partners” and said he believed negotiations with US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff had been used “as a smokescreen”. Trump’s announcement about the deal came on the same day US, Ukrainian and European officials were due to hold talks in Miami in a fresh diplomatic effort to end Russia’s war. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said ‘gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civilized world’ Meanwhile, a statement from the British Government condemned Russia for continuing its war with Ukraine, and said it would maintain pressure on Russia through the toughest sanctions regime ever imposed by the UK. The Government spokesperson did not directly address the US-Russia deal. “The UK’s position could not be clearer. We will continue working closely with international partners to ensure Ukraine has the military and financial support it needs to defend itself. We will also maintain pressure on Russia through the toughest sanctions regime ever imposed by the UK, increasing the cost of Putin’s aggression and supporting efforts to secure a just and lasting peace,” they said. “Ukraine has repeatedly demonstrated it is serious about peace, but Russia has repeatedly rejected full and partial ceasefires while continuing attacks on Ukrainian civilians and energy. “Russia could end this war today. We remain committed to supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes and to working with partners to bring about a durable peace.” The deal also provoked backlash in the US, with Congressman Don Beyer, the senior House Democrat on the Joint Economic Committee, calling Trump’s announcement “infuriating”. “This is what we warned anyone who would listen: Trump isn’t the slightest bit trustworthy when it comes to Russia,” Beyer said on X. He added: “Giving him expanded tariff powers in hopes he would use them to help Ukraine was a mistake. Now he’s lifting sanctions on Russian fossil fuels.” Last month, Trump signed off on new Russia sanctions which targeted the country’s energy sector and other areas and entities which fuel its war against Ukraine, such as Russian officials, banks and a fleet of shadow tankers. The measures also ban new US investment in Russia plus handling of its sovereign debt. Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal, who co-sponsored the law, argued Trump’s deal made the US “complicit in Putin’s war against Ukraine”. He also invoked the name of the late Republican senator Lindsey Graham, for whom the legislation was named, as he condemned the agreement. “This agreement with a murdering dictator is a stain on our nation’s character, an insult to Lindsey Graham’s memory, and directly contrary to Congress’s intent in our bipartisan sanctions bill,” Senator Blumenthal said in a statement. Will the deal help Trump bring down prices, or Republicans win the midterms? Political analysts have widely tipped Trump’s Republican Party to lose control of Congress after the vote on November 3, with candidates impacted by the President’s low approval ratings, as well as surging inflation and rising fuel prices. In a leaked call on Wednesday, Ken Paxton, the Republican candidate in Texas, warned that his campaign was being hurt by high gas and diesel prices, and the Iran war, Axios reported. As of Friday, a gallon of diesel cost $6.28 in the US, up from $3.68 a year ago. The price of diesel has soared in the wake of Trump’s decision to start the war with Iran, in part due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A shortage of refinery capacity – the amount of facilities available to convert crude oil into diesel – has also pushed up prices. The price of diesel has soared in the wake of Trump’s decision to start the war with Iran (Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images) Russia, once a major exporter of diesel, has banned exports since July as it struggled to meet demand inside the country because of Ukraine’s repeated attacks on Russian oil refineries. The International Energy Agency says Russian diesel output has fallen by about 30 per cent. Trump has sought to downplay the impact of the Iran war, claiming the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has done less to push up prices than Ukraine’s attacks. According to Axios, the President decided to push ahead with the diesel deal because he believed Ukraine had ignored his requests to stop halting strikes on Russian oil refineries. Ukrainian officials had pledged to cease such attacks on the condition Russia also halted strikes on its energy infrastructure. Trump, though, reportedly did not view the two military operations as equivalent and was demanding Ukraine unilaterally cease its attacks. Meanwhile, oil flows through the strait have picked up in recent weeks, but prices have largely remained stable. In a note, AMP economist My Bui explained: “This is mainly because the cost of getting oil to refineries is now higher: ship-to-ship transfers take longer, require more complex logistics and use more tankers to deliver the same amount of oil. “Most vessels travelling through the region also face much higher insurance costs, particularly amid reports of crew casualties. The US military escort plan also appears fragile if tensions flare again.” Bui suggested prices were unlikely to fall quickly, even with the additional supply promised by Russia. The numbers involved also cast doubt on Trump’s promise of relief for US consumers. Around 3.6 million barrels of diesel are used each day in the US, meaning Russia’s initial 300,000 tonnes of fuel would account for approximately half of just a single day’s consumption. Even if Russia is able to provide even more supply, the lag between any resulting wholesale price drops and lower costs at the pump mean it is unlikely consumers in the US would see meaningful relief before the midterms. With struggling states like Iowa, Kansas, Texas, and Ohio all crucial electoral battlegrounds, Trump’s deal appears unlikely to help Republicans overcome their political headaches.