DAN HODGES: This by-election was a humiliation for Polanski and a massive boost for Burnham - it's now a matter of when, not if, the PM calls a snap election

DAN HODGES: This by-election was a humiliation for Polanski and a massive boost for Burnham - it's now a matter of when, not if, the PM calls a snap election By DAN HODGES, DAILY MAIL COLUMNIST Published: | Updated: The most important thing about Zack Polanski’s humiliation in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election is it represents a resounding rejection of racism and hate. Less than a week before polling day, his Green Party had passed a resolution effectively advocating the eradication of the state of Israel. A second motion, extending protection to Jews attending their place of worship, had also been roundly defeated. Tellingly, Polanski didn’t take part in the vote himself, claiming he was focusing on the by-election. Despite all this, in the last days of campaigning, Polanski boasted he was on course for victory. But North London voters had other ideas, and united to stand in the way of his march to Westminster. Today’s result is the most important rejection of anti-Semitism since Cable Street. To properly understand the scale of that repudiation, you need to crunch the figures. At the last election, Sir Keir Starmer won 48.9 per cent of the vote. At yesterday's by-election, Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali secured 45.2 per cent – virtually the same vote share. In 2024, the Greens secured just under 11 per cent. And it’s true that in yesterday’s poll this rose to 32.8 per cent. But that 2024 progressive vote was distorted by the presence of independent candidate Andrew Feinstein, a radical Corbynite and leader of the self-styled Camden Community Alliance. He had come second in the seat with almost 19 per cent of the vote. This time, Feinstein threw his weight, and activists, behind Polanski. To no avail: the combined Green/Feinstein vote share was only marginally up on two years ago. Today there is a frantic spin operation underway from Polanski’s supporters. But the reality is this: The Greens' leader specifically waited to target a North London constituency because he thought it represented his best chance of election to Parliament. Zack Polanski during the count declaration in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election this morning It was a seat that was previously represented by the most unpopular Labour Prime Minister in British political history. Starmer, ousted by his own party, subsequently flounced out of Westminster, leaving his constituents in the lurch. It’s hard to think of a more advantageous set of circumstances for a radical insurgent seeking to plant their flag. And all Polanski managed to do was run it through his own foot. Though the most important thing was the public’s firm and instant rejection of the Greens’ anti-Semitic agenda, Holborn and St Pancras has far wider political implications. Not least for the timing of the next election. Since being elected leader of the Labour Party and Prime Minister, Andy Burnham has pursued a single strategy: moving his party to the Left in the hope of shoring up that flank and encouraging disillusioned liberal progressives and former traditional Labour voters to return to the fold. And last night was a vindication of that approach. The Holborn and St Pancras vote cements the current trajectory of British politics. Labour’s support is returning. Its poll lead over Reform and the Tories is increasing. But there was another important factor at play yesterday. The vote share for the Liberal Democrats nearly halved. Admittedly, that was from a relatively low base. But it shows that an unofficial, yet significant, Lab/Lib Dem alliance is forming – one in which the parties are prepared to embrace tactical voting in the face of a mutual threat. Meanwhile, the direction of travel on the Right is also clear. The Tory vote stood up well. They jumped to third in the seat, providing further evidence of their incremental recovery. Reform, meanwhile, continued their decline, slipping back on their 2024 result. And Restore – whose activists were subjected to unacceptable abuse while canvassing – came above George Galloway and within 300 votes of the Lib Dems. Put all that together and you get the following picture. Burnham’s 'Lean Left' strategy is working spectacularly. Labour is now approaching 30 per cent in the polls. Labour's Sagal Abdi-Wali, seen being hugged by a supporter after her victory, secured 45.2 per cent in the by-election – virtually the same vote share as in the 2024 election Sagal Abdi-Wali is congratulated by Labour Education Secretary Lucy Powell following her win Meanwhile, the Greens and their leader are now utterly toxic in the eyes of the vast majority of the electorate. Polanski’s party is hopelessly divided following its descent into overt anti-Semitism, and will now collapse in the polls. That will give an additional boost to Labour, probably nudging the party closer to 31-32 per cent. At the same time, Reform’s brand is similarly toxified, tainted as it is by the party’s embrace of ethno-nationalism and an endless series of funding scandals. That means Nigel Farage’s own poll collapse will continue. But, in addition, it will further boost anti-Reform tactical voting in their Labour and Tory-facing seats. That will further assist the Conservatives’ recovery. But it will also give an additional boost to Burnham, effectively adding a further percentage point or two to his national poll lead. Then factor in Restore and add in the way the Labour vote is spread more efficiently than its rivals. Plus the fact that Burnham can currently see a gaping split among the Right, but one that will eventually start to narrow as Kemi Badenoch continues her slow but steady revival. There is only one rational conclusion to be reached. Holborn and St Pancras is going to provide the springboard for the Prime Minister to call a snap election sometime in the first half of next year. He would be utterly mad not to. With the Green decline, and the additional support he will secure via anti-Reform tactical voting, Labour will soon be approaching 34 per cent in the polls. Two years ago, Sir Keir Starmer won a majority of 172 with 33.7 per cent. And that was without the Right being split as irrevocably as it is now, and Nigel Farage being the most divisive figure in British politics. The most important thing was that yesterday the voters of North London stood in the way of Polanski’s Green Shirts. But that was only the opening skirmish of the struggle to come. In her conference speech on Wednesday, Kemi Badenoch said that the next general election will be a battle for the soul of the nation. She is right. And after Holborn and St Pancras, we will not need to wait long for battle to commence. It is now only a matter of when, not if, Burnham calls that snap election.