Burnham gambles on scrapping the triple lock – and Labour insiders fear a backlash

Labour MPs and party insiders fear a backlash from voters after Andy Burnham’s gamble to announce the end of the state pension triple lock. In his speech at Labour’s conference in Liverpool on Tuesday, the Prime Minister threw caution to the wind by announcing the lock would end in its current form in April 2030 to help pay for free at the point of use social care. Under the current triple lock, the state pension rises each year in line with the highest of earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent. Labour insiders who support moving away from the lock in principle are worried about the political fallout. If Labour won the next election, a new “adjusted” lock would see the state pension rise each year by at least inflation or 2.5 per cent. Burnham also said it would “hold its value relative to earnings over time”. In practice, this means the pension could receive additional uplifts to ensure it does not fall below the share of average earnings it has reached by the time of the next election, which is expected to be more than 30 per cent. According to the Government, the new policy is forecast to save £15bn by 2040. The savings will help fund Burnham’s vision for a new National Care Service providing free at the point of use personal care, although the cost of bed and board will not be paid for. A Government source said that while the new lock would not cover the full cost of the new social care system on its own, it will be an enabler. Options for the remainder of the funding will be set out next summer by Baroness Louise Casey, who is currently carrying out a review of the care system. The Prime Minister acknowledged in his speech that the totemic move to end the lock – which has been in place since 2011 – could lose him votes. “I won’t pretend some of this won’t be difficult,” he said. “I accept I may pay a political price. But someone has to go through the pain barrier and rip the plaster off.” Before his speech several Labour figures had already gone public to warn him against scrapping the lock. Sharon Graham, the general secretary of the powerful Unite union, told The i Paper that it would be an “absolute disaster zone” akin to Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to cut winter fuel payments, which provoked a huge backlash. Neil Duncan-Jordan, the leftwing MP for Poole, drew the same parallel. “In life, you’re supposed to learn from getting your fingers burnt,” he said. “Labour got itself into a mess over winter fuel payments and lost trust with millions. To rerun a saga that ended in a bruising U-turn is the wrong approach.” One Government source praised Burnham for being “brave” and said that getting rid of the mechanism is the right thing to do. However, they questioned the wisdom of making the announcement before spelling out reforms to rein in benefit spending. Burnham had convened his top ministers on Tuesday morning for a rare ‘political cabinet’ meeting to brief them on his conference speech, which also included bold announcements to get closer to Europe and pursue electoral reform. A Cabinet minister said they were all united behind his decision on the lock and that Burnham was currently at the “height of his power”, which meant there was little dissent when he gave them the overview of his conference speech. At a conference fringe event on Tuesday afternoon, the chief secretary to the Treasury Emma Reynolds told The i Paper: “No one can say that our new Prime Minister runs away from difficult issues, he runs right towards them, and the way I think he is willing to engage in difficult political arguments is really refreshing.” Reynolds said that she hoped sceptics like Graham would change their mind now that Burnham had outlined how the new lock will work. “I want Sharon to look at the detail because obviously the comments that she made, maybe she thought we were going to scrap it, and we’re not,” she said. On whether it would command the support of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP), she said: “Well, I hope so because, as I say, this is a better deal, a new settlement for pensioners.” Reynolds said the Government had more work to do on the precise mechanism for ensuring the state pension holds its value relative to earnings over time. “You’ll just have to bear with us on that,” she said. While there are doubters in the PLP, other Labour MPs were enthused by Burnham’s announcement. One MP said: “I’m thrilled. Somebody had to grapple this and it’s amazing that Andy’s done it. We just announced a policy that is going to free up tens of billions of pounds.”“I think the PLP is mostly on the same page about this. It’s not something they’re going to get kickback on.” Asked whether moving away from the triple lock will be controversial with backbenchers, Allison Gardner, Labour MP for Stoke-on-Trent South, said: “Not the way he delivered it. It is not working for us the triple lock. It is not working across the board.” She added: “It may feel like he’s taking away on one hand but he’s given so much more back.”