Andy Burnham WINS Makerfield by-election to set up showdown with Starmer & summer of Labour civil war

ANDY Burnham has won the crunch Makerfield by-election, setting him on course to challenge Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. The Greater Manchester Mayor beat Reform‘s Rob Kenyon after a bruising campaign that became a proxy battle for the future of Labour – and Britain. Mr Burnham secured 24,927 votes and won by a majority of 9,231 – which will return him to Westminster for the first time in nine years. Second place was Reform’s Mr Kenyon who received 15,696 votes and third place was Restore who achieved 3,111. Mr Burnham’s victory propels him to the centre of the race to succeed Sir Keir, with talks between the two men expected within days. Britain is likely set for a summer of Labour civil war as the rival camps fight it out for the leadership of the party and the nation. Read More in news At last, it's over By MARTINA BET, Chief Political Correspondent HAVING spent the past two days in Makerfield, one thing that struck me was just how many people seemed relieved that the circus was finally leaving town. One pub had stopped allowing political discussions because arguments between customers had become too heated, while a Labour-supporting couple told me they had even talked about moving away because the endless elections and armies of activists had left the area feeling increasingly divided. With Labour boasting that some doors had been knocked close to eight times and thousands of activists descending on polling day, plenty of voters appeared to be craving the exact opposite of what Westminster was offering them: a bit less politics and a bit more peace and quiet. Mr Burnham’s win sets up a potential contest unless the Prime Minister agrees to step down. During his victory speech, Mr Burnham said Labour had a “final chance to change” and “we must act upon it”. He added: “People here have voted for change, they have voted for more power for the North and everywhere forgotten by Westminster. “They have voted for hope. Now let’s give that back to them.” Most read in The Sun Taking a shot at Reform, he said: “There will be no second chance, but it is a chance now from this result tonight to build a new politics based on unity and hope, turning away from the path that takes us to a divided, dark politics of the kind we see in the United States.” What happens next? WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? ANDY Burnham has won the Makerfield by-election and the fight for No10 is about to begin. Here are the four ways Labour’s summer civil war could play out. STARMER QUITS The Prime Minister and Andy Burnham have a conversation over the course of the weekend and Sir Keir concludes the game is up.  He announces a resignation – with Mr Burnham potentially becoming leader after a short contest or a coronation. Likelihood rating: 1 out of 5. Sir Keir has repeatedly vowed to fight any leadership challenge and recent reports revealed he has amassed a six-figure war chest to fund his campaign. ORDERLY TRANSITION The pair could strike a deal – with the PM agreeing to stand down after Labour conference in September. This would allow Mr Burnham to prepare for power and spare the party an all-out war. Likelihood rating: 2 out of 5. Andy Burnham and many Cabinet ministers would prefer this option. But it would leave Sir Keir a lame duck and he may struggle to accept such a public timetable for his own departure. STARMER DIGS IN AND THEN FALLS The PM refuses to budge and dares Mr Burnham or other leadership hopefuls to force him out. But Cabinet ministers, junior ministers and MPs ramp up the pressure. Resignations start and the Prime Minister eventually finds himself unable to carry on – in a similar way to what happened to former Tory PM Boris Johnson. Mr Burnham inherits the wreckage and enters No10. Likelihood rating: 4 out of 5. The Prime Minister has not shown any sign of wanting to quit or agree to a timetable for his own departure. His allies insist he is not bluffing when he says he will not go down easy. ALL-OUT LEADERSHIP WAR Sir Keir refuses to quit and Mr Burnham secures enough support to challenge him. Wes Streeting and others pile in. Labour spends months tearing itself apart while Reform looks on. Mr Burnham eventually wins, but emerges bruised and with a divided party. Likelihood: 3 out of 5. Mr Burnham’s camp want to avoid this but they may have underestimated Sir Keir’s determination to stay. The turnout for the ballot was 58.75 per cent with the result coming just after 3am. Sir Keir has insisted he will fight any attempt to challenge him and has been building up a war chest for the leadership campaign. But Mr Burnham’s supporters want the Prime Minister to set out an “orderly and managed transition” of power. Former cabinet minister Louise Haigh said she hoped Sir Keir will “do what’s best for both the country and the Labour Party”. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, who is a close ally to Mr Burnham, said “there will be a conversation” with the Prime Minister over the course of the weekend but added: “That’s not for tonight.” Was Andy Burnham's biggest ally in Makerfield Sir Keir Starmer? By MARTINA BET, Chief Political Correspondent ANDY Burnham’s biggest ally in Makerfield wasn’t Greater Manchester. It was Sir Keir Starmer. The Prime Minister has become so unpopular that a vote for Mr Burnham undeniably became, for many, a vote to get rid of the man in No10. And Mr Burnham won comfortably. His 24,927 votes put Reform’s Rob Kenyon more than 9,000 behind, with Rupert Lowe’s Restore failing to play spoiler. Rebecca Shepard’s 3,111 votes made less difference than many expected. Even if every one had gone to Reform, the Greater Manchester Mayor still wins. For Nigel Farage’s party, there may now be some uncomfortable questions. Makerfield was one of Reform’s best second places in 2024 and Wigan had turned turquoise in May’s local elections. Yet despite Labour’s troubles, the party failed to break through, while the emergence of Restore showed the challenge of holding together the Right as well as broadening its appeal. Burnham’s camp also had one thing above all else in common over the past five weeks: winning the by-election . That shared purpose kept everyone pulling in the same direction, from Blue Labour figures to the soft-left of the party. Nobody cared about ideological differences because there was a bigger prize at stake. But removing a Prime Minister is one thing while running the country is another. Sir Keir had four years to prepare for government and still arrived in Downing Street looking like a man without a plan. Burnham’s team has had five weeks. His victory speech was heavy on “hope”, “unity” and “change” and understandably so; elections are won on broad themes. But as the dawn breaks today, the questions are just going to get harder. What is Burnhamism? Who pays for it? Which side wins the arguments inside his camp? Makerfield was the easy bit. Proving you can govern Britain better is something else entirely. Asked if she will resign to heap up the pressure on the PM to quit, Ms Nandy said: “I’m not going to resign, of course not. “I’d never walk away from the promise that we made to the people of this country until we’ve delivered it.” Before polling day, the PM warned that a leadership battle would unleash “chaos” and argued Labour should focus instead on holding Greater Manchester. His supporters have pointed to assurances Mr Burnham gave Labour’s ruling NEC that he would throw himself into the mayoral campaign. But Burnham allies insist he will not disappear from Westminster just as momentum is behind him. The Makerfield by-election was triggered after former Labour minister Josh Simons, who was once a close ally to Sir Keir, stood down to allow Mr Burnham to return to Westminster.. In Scotland, the Tories won Aberdeen South from the SNP after ex-Westminster leader Stephen Flynn resigned after being elected to Holyrood. Tories win by-election in Scotland By Martina Bet, Chief Political Correspondent THE Tories have won the Aberdeen South by-election, wresting the seat from the SNP in a major blow for John Swinney. Scottish Tory MSP Douglas Lumsden secured victory after a campaign almost entirely dominated by rows over the future of North Sea oil and gas. The loss will pile fresh pressure on Mr Swinney just weeks after former SNP chief executive Peter Murrell, husband of ex-First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, was convicted of embezzling party funds. The scandal has plunged the SNP into renewed turmoil and raised fresh questions over the party’s leadership and finances. The by-election was triggered after former SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn quit the Commons following his election to Holyrood. Former MP Stephen Gethins also stood down and both men were swiftly drafted into Mr Swinney’s Government. Mr Lumsden defeated former SNP MP Richard Thomson after a campaign in which candidates said concerns over oil and gas jobs dominated conversations on the doorstep in Aberdeen, long known as Europe’s energy capital. Reform UK candidate Jo Hart also sought to position herself as a defender of the industry. Labour’s Nurul Hoque Ali, Liberal Democrat Mel Sullivan, Green candidate Jorg Shelton Eckstein and Alliance for Democracy and Freedom hopeful David Ballantine also stood. The victory marks a rare Westminster gain for the Conservatives in Scotland and provides a much-needed boost for Kemi Badenoch’s party.