Makerfield by-election polling shows Burnham ahead of Reform UK, with Restore Britain potentially splitting the right-wing vote

Unbiased summary

The Makerfield by-election, scheduled for 18 June 2026, features Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester mayor, as the Labour candidate against Reform UK's Robert Kenyon and Restore Britain's Rebecca Shepherd, among others. Multiple constituency polls show Burnham leading with approximately 45-46%, Reform on 40-41%, and Restore Britain on 7-8%. Polling analysts suggest Restore Britain is splitting the right-wing vote, which could be decisive in Burnham's favour. Burnham has signalled leadership ambitions should he enter parliament. The political backdrop includes government ministerial resignations, recent violent disorder in Northern Ireland, and ongoing tensions over immigration. A separate allegation from a woman who claims she was drugged and raped in Greater Manchester Police custody has surfaced, with the complainant accusing Burnham of failing to act on promises made regarding her case.

Coverage by outlet

The Guardian left

Angle The Guardian frames the by-election as a battle between progressive politics embodied by Burnham and a dangerous, racialised politics of grievance represented by Reform and Restore Britain.

Bias The Guardian editorially endorses Burnham and characterises his policies favourably as 'radical' and 'serious', omitting scrutiny of his record as Greater Manchester mayor. It frames Reform and Restore Britain's responses to the Northern Ireland violence in strongly negative terms — 'paranoia and racialised resentment' — without applying comparable critical analysis to Labour or Burnham. The inclusion of a separate, unrelated editorial on wartime literature suggests editorial padding that dilutes political focus rather than contributing to balanced by-election coverage.

The Guardian view on the Makerfield byelection: Andy Burnham is looking to beat Reform’s politics of anger | Editorial

The Guardian view on literature in wartime: words do not stop when the bombing begins | Editorial

The Independent centre-left

Angle The Independent presents the polling data relatively neutrally but frames the story primarily through the lens of Burnham's path to victory and his prospective leadership challenge to Starmer.

Bias The Independent's coverage is among the more factually grounded, accurately reporting margins of error and noting the contest is 'too close to call', which is a notably more cautious framing than other outlets. However, the headline — 'set to sweep Burnham to victory' — overstates what the polling actually shows given the acknowledged margin of error. The outlet gives relatively little weight to the Reform UK perspective or the possibility of a Kenyon victory, and does not engage with the misconduct allegations or government resignations as relevant context.

Restore Britain set to sweep Burnham to victory in Makerfield, new poll suggests

BBC News centre-left

Angle The BBC frames the story as an analytical question about whether Restore Britain will functionally deliver Burnham's victory, presenting it as an open investigative puzzle rather than taking a clear position.

Bias As a podcast description rather than a full article, the BBC's entry provides limited content to analyse, but the framing — 'Could Restore Britain Help Andy Burnham Win?' — positions Restore Britain primarily in relation to its effect on Burnham rather than as an independent political actor, subtly centring the narrative around Labour's fortunes. The BBC does include the More in Common pollster directly, lending credibility to a specific polling organisation's framing. Notable omissions include any mention of the misconduct allegations, ministerial resignations, or the Northern Ireland violence backdrop.

By-Electioncast: Could Restore Britain Help Andy Burnham Win?

Daily Mail right

Angle The Daily Mail frames the by-election primarily as a missed opportunity for Reform UK, with Restore Britain cast as a spoiler preventing a right-wing victory, and uses a misconduct allegation to undermine Burnham directly.

Bias The Mail emphasises polling data showing Reform could win if Restore voters switched, framing Restore voters as inadvertently enabling a 'radical Left-wing government' — a loaded characterisation absent from neutral polling analysis. The inclusion of a serious but unverified misconduct allegation against Burnham immediately before the by-election, framed prominently, serves an editorial purpose of damaging his candidacy rather than purely informing readers. The Dan Hodges piece, while including anecdotal balance, is structured to raise doubts about Farage's prospects rather than provide neutral analysis.

Reform can beat Burnham in pivotal Makerfield by-election if Restore voters switch to Nigel Farage's party, poll shows

DAN HODGES: Farage may well end up with a bloody nose at Thursday's by-election. This is what voters in Makerfield told me that reveals why

Woman who claims she was drugged and raped in custody by Greater Manchester Police officers says Mayor Andy Burnham has 'not delivered on any of his promises' to help her